Intervju: Hans Ovesen, Ericsson

Filip Majkić

Intervju: Hans Ovesen, Ericsson – Mobilni broadband – tehnologija kao pokretač ekonomskog rasta

Benchmark: Gospodine Ovesen, vaša tema na Telforu jeste uticaj mobilnog broadband kao oslonca rasta ekonomija. Recite nam nešto više o tome, budući da Srbija očajnički juri rast svog budžeta rizikujući puno sa povećavanjima nivoa javnog duga.

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Po mom mišljenju, za koje bih rekao da je tipično za industriju kojom se bavimo, uloga vlade jeste da stvori uslove koji generišu ekonomski rast. Istovremeno, ukoliko prođemo kroz našu nedavno objavljenu Networked Society Index studiju, uočavamo da postoji korelacija između takozvane Triple bottom linije i zrelosti ICT sektora. Oni gradovi, zajednice, pa i države koje su u stanju da na takav način pristupe stvarima, generišu nove prihode, investicije i stvaraju mogućnosti za inovacije.

Većina od navedenih stavki se može ostvariti predstavljanjem planova Vlade i zakonodavnih organa mobilnoj industriji, i dati im dovoljno vremena kako bi se mogla jasno proračunati isplativost investicionog ciklusa. Drugim rečima, potrebno je da mi kao ulagači znamo šta nas čeka ukoliko investiramo i da možemo proračunati povratak investicije i sagledati rizike.Opsezi, radne dozvolei drugi neophodni uslovi su svakako deo tih planova.

Benchmark: Koji su faktori sa kojima investiranje u broadband mora biti u korelaciji da bi se razvoj vršio bez zastajkivanja i nailaženja na prepreke sa strane? Pretpostavljamo da je, recimo, izuzetno važno ulagati paralelno u obrazovanje i tehnologije koje se oslanjaju nabroadband.

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Veoma je bitno za samo društvo da se osnovno i više obrazovanje mora fokusiratina činjenicu da se u ovoj oblasti i industriji stalno uči iznova. Svi moramo da dobro poznajemo osnove, ali i da u višem obrazovanju učimo kako da procenjujemo naše znanje, da smo spremni na ponovno obrazovanje i trening, reedukaciju koja će nam pomoći u stvaranju novih inovacija, a zašto da ne, i novih industrija! Ništa ne ostaje isto i svi mi stvaramo promene, shvatali to ili ne. Moja deca koriste IT na potpuno drugačiji način i u drugačijim uslovima nego što sam ja to činio u njihovom dobu, i to će se nastavljati u budućnosti.

Kada su investitori u pitanju, deo odgovora se nalazi u prethodnom pitanju, prevashodno u vezi sapravilima i uslovima poslovanja. Ali, kao što je Šumpeter (Jozef Šumpeter, austrijski ekonomista, kreator teorije kreativne destrukcije u ekonomiji prim. ured.) rekao, nijedna industrija nije zaštićena od promena; biće “Kreativne destrukcije” koja će iznova donositi nove industrije u igru, kako bi se stvarale nove inovacije, odgovaralo na nove potrebe tržišta i ljudi, te doneli novi načini stvaranja poslova. Svi moramo biti aktivni u sticanju novih znanja kako bismo ostali relevantni u industriji u kojoj poslujemo.

Benchmark: Kada govorimo o uticaju broadbanda na rast BDP-a, pokazuju li vaše analize da postoji određeni tipping point iznad koga ulaganja ne daju bolje efekte? Ako je tako, koliki je optimalan procenat ulaganja u broadband u odnosu na BDP na godišnjem nivou i razlikuje li se taj koeficijent prema toma da li je zemlja u razvoju ili je razvijena zemlja?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Teško pitanje, budući dasmo bazirali naše istraživanje na realnim rezultatima, tako da je teško sagledati alternativne scenarije. U zavisnosti od iskustava drugih investitora i generalnoj teoriji smanjivanja profita, to je svakako moguće očekivati u nekom trenutku. No, na kratke staze, recimo četiri do osam godina, ne vidimo da postoji mogućnost da dođe do takve pojave.

Takođe, treba se prisetiti da je naše istraživanje pre tri godine pokazalo da za svakih 10% uvećanja prisustva broadbanda, pozitivan efekat godišnjeg BDP-a, to jest njegov rast, iznosi 1%.

Benchmark: Kako izbeći preterano zaduživanje i “prevelike” investicije u broadband koje bi sutra IT opteretilo dugovima i učinilo ulaganja manje isplativim?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Generalno, poslu se uvek pristupa na racionalan način. U posebnim slučajevima, naravno da pojedine kompanije mogu da se odluče na nerealno velike investicije u IT ili infrastrukturu koji su manje relevantni ili irelevantni, što dakako utiče na isplativost investicije. Takve kompanije će verovatno imati druge probleme, manje vezane za investicije u mobilnu tehnologiju.

Kada su mobilni operatori u pitanju, uočavamo pravilo da investicije u mreže visokih performansi i visok stepen ispunjavanja korisničkih potreba, generalno dovode do uvećavanja tržišnog udela, kao i zarade od investiranja. To je usko vezano sa zadovoljstvom korisnika. Izazov je u tome što krajnji korisnici stalno uvećavaju svoje zahteve i menjaju potrebe vrlo brzo nakon što se naviknu na trenutni status.

Benchmark: Gde vidite ulogu države kod ulaganja u broadband, i kakva su vaša iskustva na raznim tržištima, da li najbolje funkcionišu čisto privatne inicijative, prevashodno državne inicijative, ili nekakvi zajednički planovi i ulaganja?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Naše je gledište da je uloga države da podrži manje srećne ili one koji žive u područjima koja su na neki način opterećena nekim faktorom, gde su određeni uslovi življenja otežani. Postoje različita rešenja, zavisno od lokalnih uslova, demografije, geografije, društvene prihvatljivosti određenih regulacija i tako dalje. Viđenje kompanije Ericsson je da mere podrške treba da budu veoma balansirane kako ne bi poremetile balans tržišta između kompanija koje na njemu posluju.

Benchmark: Obzirom na podatke koje nam predstavlja Ericsson, mobilni broadband će biti ubedljivo dominantna komponenta globalnog rasta. Možete li nam reći nešto više o tim projekcijama?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Da, Ericsson provodi dosta vremena radeći na mrežama mobilnih operatora, i trenutno se na našim mrežama, koje održavamo, nalazi više od milijardu pretplatnika. Uvid koji dobijamo u funkcionisanje i rad mreža i istraživanje koje radimo putem raznih merenja nam daju za pravo da smatramo da imamo dosta dobar uvid u realnost funkcionisanja mobilnih širokopojasnih mreža i njihovog očekivanog rasta. Osim toga, naša predviđanja baziramo i na situacijama iz prošlosti i iskustava sa rastom GSM i HSPA, takođe. Za više detalja, preporučio bih našnoviMobile Broadband Report koji smo predstavili pre nekoliko nedelja i koji je dostupan na sajtu www.ericsson.com.

Benchmark: Mobilni broadband deluje kao idealno rešenje savremenih izazova, i u ruralnim i u gusto naseljenim područjima. Da li mislite da bi operatori trebalo da igraju ključnu ulogu u njegovoj promociji prema krajnjim korisnicima, ili postoji prostora i za treća lica, svojevrsne “mini operatore”, što bi dosta promenilo sliku tržišta i uslove poslovanja, dobivši pre svega na dinamici?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Naše je gledište da su operatori generalno veoma inovativni kada se radi o načinima da dopru do svojih korisnika. Ipak, smatram da postoje grupe kojima je potrebna bolja edukacija o benefitima, kao i o načinima na koje web-bazirani servisi mogu poboljšati kvalitet njihovog života ili rada, korišćenjem mobilnih širokopojasnih mreža. Zapravo, mnogi ljudi će svoje prvo i jedino iskustvo interneta doživeti upravo ovim putem.

Smatram da takođe postoje određene usluge od kojih celo društvo može imati koristi, kao što su usluge u oblasti zdravstva i školstva, gde pristup web servisima može da pomogne mnogim ljudima. U nekim zemljama provajderi zdravstvene zaštite samoinicijativno povezuju pacijente koji npr. boluju od dijabetesa, sa web servisima koji im pomažu da vode aktivan život. Mobilne širokopojasne mreže zapravo postaju ekstenzija koja nam omogućava da radimo ili putujemo, ili da podržavamo jedni druge, bez da zapravo imamo svest da se sve vreme oslanjamo na mobilne širokopojasne mreže.

Kada je reč o potencijalnim mini-operatorima koji bi prodavali ovakve usluge, to bi trebalo biti pitanje za investitore koji će najbolje proceniti da li postoji prostor za takav poslovni model i potencijal za otvaranje novih radnih mesta. Stvarnost ove industrije je da već postoji mnogo učesnika u tržišnom nadmetanju, te da odlučujući faktor predstavlja kombinacija demografije, zrelosti ICT tržišta, te kupovna moć zajednice. Kreatori tržišnih pravila mogu, naravno, promovisati određene poslovne modele u zavisnosti oduticaja na investicionu klimu, a na investitorima je da odluče da li postoji prostor za ovakav tip poslovanja.

Bechmark: Za kraj, imajući u vidu da je predviđanje budućih trendova specijalnost Ericssona, ukoliko će video činiti više od 50% svog saobraćaja do 2019. godine, da li bismo mogli da početkom naredne decenije očekujemo pojavu nekog novog trenda? Nekada je glavni faktor razvoja saobraćaja bio poziv i SMS, nakon toga internet u relativno ograničenom obimu, danas je to video. Šta će biti glavni faktor u 2020. godini, hoće li to ostati video, samo u još višem kvalitetu, ili će se do tada pojaviti nešto što nam danas deluje nezamislivo?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Teško pitanje. Svakako će različite varijante videa, visoke definicije misleći tu na 4k video, pa i više, kao i igranje u 3D-u i slično,bit značajni faktori. Generalno, video u različitim formama će, zajedno sa igranjem, biti ključni faktori rasta u narednih sedam do osam godina.

Benchmark: Gospodine Ovesen, hvala Vam puno na izdvojenom  vremenu.

Benchmark: Mister Ovesen, your overall theme on Telfor is the impact of the mobile broadband technologies on GDP and broader economics. Can you tell us a bit more about that, considering that Serbia is desperately attempting to boost its GDP while taking on many risks, especially with steep debt rising.

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: In my view and I think this is commonly shared across the industry, Governments has a responsibility to create the conditions that generate economic growth. At the same time we can also see through our recently released Networked Society Index that where there is correlation between the so called Triple bottom line and ICT maturity, those cities, communities and possibly beyond that, they attract investments, create beneficial conditions for job creation and be extension to create platforms for innovation.

Most of this can be achieved by letting the Mobile Industry know the rules and plans of governments, policymakers and legislators for reasonable long enough time period and knowing that if I invest, I can get a return on that investment that offsets my risk. Spectrum, Operating licenses and other conditions are of course part of these plans.

Benchmark: What does the investing in broadband need to be related and combined with, in order for development and growth to be continuous and hiccups-free? For example, it is obvious that it's very important to invest in education and technologies dependant on broadband.

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: For a society, basic and higher education needs to focus on the fact that in this industry it is continuous re-learning. We all need our basics right and it is in higher education we need to learn how to evaluate what we learn, re-train and re-educate to be able to innovate and create new innovations and possibly new industries. Nothing stays the same and we are all part of driving that change whether we realise it or not. My children use IT in a different way than I did at the same age, that will only continue.

For the investors I think I covered some of the answers previously about the policies and rules. But as Schumpeter said, no industry is ever protected against change; there will also be “Creative destruction” which can introduce new industries which again will generate more innovation and new ways of creating jobs. We will all need to be active in getting new knowledge to be relevant in our industry.

Benchmark: Speaking of broadband's impact on GDP, do your analysis speak of a certain tipping point, above which further investments don't result in that bigger impact? If so, what is the optimal percentage of broadband investing in relation to yearly GDP, and does that number differ between developed countries and developing countries?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: This is a tough question as we have based our research on actual results so really hard to see if there would be a flattening of the effect. Based on experiences of other investments and the general theory of diminishing returns it is likely to be correct at some point. In the short perspective let’s say 4-8 years I don’t see those diminishing returns in most countries.

Let’s also remember that our research that we released 3 years ago, that with each 10% rise of Broadband penetration, it has positive impact of additional 1% GDP growth.

Benchmark: How to evade burdening business with investing debt, is there any risk of pumping too much investment money in a sense that those debts could impact tomorrow's businesses based on broadband and mobile broadband?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: That depends on what you mean; on a general level businesses are always dealing in a rational way. In specific cases of course individual companies can overinvest in IT systems or infrastructure that is less relevant or may even by irrelevant. Those businesses or enterprises are likely to have other problems less related to investments in Mobile technology.

For the Mobile Operators we see that those operators that invest in high performance networks with high end-user satisfaction seem to be gaining market share and generate higher ROI. That is highly correlated to end-user satisfaction. The challenge is that the end users always increase the requirements once they have got used to current status…

Benchmark: Where do you see the role of the state with broadband investing, and what is your experience on other foreign markets? Is the private initiative the solution, state initiative, or should we go with the mix of public-private partnerships?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: In our view the State has a role in supporting those less fortunate or those that normally live in areas which are underserved. There are various solutions depending on local conditions, demographics, geography, society acceptance for various regulations etc. Ericsson view is that supporting measures should be very balanced not to disturb the market balance among Industry players.

Benchmark: Considering Ericsson's data, mobile broadband will be predominant component of the mobile growth. Can you tell us a bit more about those projections of your company?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Yes, Ericsson has spent quite long time operating Mobile Operator networks and we currently run more than a Billion subscribers in our Managed networks. The insight we get into the operations of those networks and the research we do through measurements, make us believe that we have a very good insight into the reality of how Mobile Broadband will grow. In addition, we also base our predictions on past performance and experiences of the previous growth of GSM and HSPA as well. For details I recommend the Mobile Broadband Report which we released only a few weeks ago and which is generally available on Ericsson.com.

Benchmark: Mobile broadband seems like an ideal solution to many challenges of today, both in rural and urban areas. Do you think that the (telecomm) operators should play key roles in promoting those technologies towards end-users (be those citizens or companies), or is there a role for other companies, “mini-operators” that would sell broadband to third parties? Such structure could enhance market dynamics and have a big impact on a market, at least in theory.

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: In our view the Operators are generally very innovative in finding ways to reach their customers. However, I think there are groups that may need more education of the benefits and how their life could change for the better with access to Web based services over Mobile Broadband. In fact many people will have their only experience of Internet over Mobile Access.

I think there are also some services that the society can benefit from,  such as Health and Education where access to the Web based services can help many people, in some countries health care providers connect patients with Diabetes over the WEB to help people live active life style.  Mobile Broadband extends that link to when they are working  or travelling and support that person in his daily life without knowing that he is using Mobile Broadband.

On the Mini Operator, that is really a question for the investors that can assess whether there is a case for building a decent business and provide jobs that last. In reality this industry has already many various players and it is the combination of demographics, ICT maturity, purchasing power of communities that can decide such things. Policy makers can of course create favourable investment climate to promote such a thing and it is up the investors to see if there is a business in that type of operation.

Benchmark: Finally, knowing that predicting future trends is a specialty of Ericsson, if we know that 50% of all traffic by the end of 2019. will be video, should we expect the rise of another form of communication? SMS and voice calls used to be biggest growth contributors, then basic forms of internet, today that is video. However, do you see it as a main driving factor even in 2020. (with differences in video quality, of course), or should we expect something new, something that perhaps looks so off-the-charts today?

Hans Ovesen, Ericsson: Difficult question, of course there are variants of Video, Higher definition 4K, maybe even higher, gaming with 3D etc  but Video in various forms including gaming will definitely drive traffic for the next 7-8 years.

Benchmark: Mister Ovesen, thank you very much for your time.